2025 Becomes the Year of Gold: Will the Rally Continue?
The price of gold per ounce climbed to $3,871 during the first nine months of 2025, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve monetary easing cycle, the U.S. government shutdown, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Experts are now asking whether this upward momentum will persist.
Global markets entered 2025 amid the inflation-recession dilemma, expecting central banks to shift toward easier monetary policy. The weakening U.S. dollar and the federal government shutdown in the third quarter drove investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset.
With Donald Trump taking office on January 20, tariff discussions re-emerged, raising global economic concerns and casting doubt on the Fed’s policy flexibility. Fears of an expanding U.S. budget deficit further supported gold prices.
Congress’s failure to approve a temporary spending bill led to the first federal government shutdown since the 35-day closure of 2018–2019, prompting a new wave of safe-haven buying.
Meanwhile, continued central bank gold purchases and strong Chinese demand further strengthened the market.
Gold rose 47.6% in nine months to reach $3,871 per ounce, with a record 11.9% monthly increase in September. On October 1, it reached an all-time high of $3,895.36.
Analysts note that gold is heading toward its largest annual gain since 1979, when it surged by 126.5%.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Capital, said the rally is driven by increased central bank demand. “Between 2001 and 2011, gold rose from $260 to $1,825. A similar long-term pattern could be emerging again,” he said.
Hansen pointed to a short-term focus on the $4,000 level but warned that if the Fed’s independence weakens, prices could rise further. He emphasized that political interference and shutdown fears have made gold more appealing.
“The pace of this rally may signal a broader shift in how markets value tangible assets like precious metals,” Hansen concluded. “There could still be room for prices to rise further in the coming months.”
